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2024-12-14 01:21:45

The "Debt Bull" was launched, and a number of treasury bonds futures reached new highs. According to the analysis, the downward trend of broad-spectrum interest rates is expected to continue to support the bull market in the bond market. On December 10, 30-year, 10-year, 5-year and 2-year treasury bonds futures all hit record highs. Looking at it for a long time, since the beginning of this year, 30-year treasury bond futures have risen by nearly 16%, 10-year treasury bond futures have risen by over 5%, and 5-year treasury bond futures have risen by over 3%. Analysts pointed out that the logic of broad-spectrum interest rate downward has run through the whole year of 2024, and it is expected to continue to form an important support for the bond market in the long run. The recent market strength is not only an emotional effect at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, but also a blocking point to dredge and guide the overall downward trend of interest rates. Shen Wanhongyuan believes that in the short term, profit-taking behavior may increase after the low interest rate, but this is not the core factor that dominates the market. Shen Wanhongyuan said that the rate cut of policy interest rate in 2025 may not be less than 30 basis points. After the deployment of relevant important meetings at the end of the year, specific policies may be gradually implemented in the first quarter of next year. According to Huaxi Securities, looking forward to 2025, the rate of single RRR cut and interest rate cut of monetary policy may not be less than 50 basis points and 20 basis points (the rate in 2024). (Securities Times)The U.S. stock Seven Sisters | Google A closed up about 5.6%, and the breakthrough of quantum chip Willow was remarkable. NVIDIA fell by 2.7%. On Tuesday (December 10th), in Magnificent 7, Google's parent company Alphabet(GOOGL) closed up 5.59%-leading the S&P 500 telecom sector, and the biggest one-day increase since April. Approaching the record closing price of $190.71 on July 10, investors pay attention to the company's latest quantum computing chip Willow, which has achieved amazing results in the benchmark test; Tesla rose 2.87%, Meta Platforms rose over 0.9%, Apple rose over 0.4% and continued to hit a record closing high, Amazon fell over 0.4%, Microsoft fell 0.6% and NVIDIA fell 2.69%. In addition, Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares closed down 0.3%, Lilly Pharmaceuticals fell 0.5%, AMD fell 2.39%, and TSMC ADR fell 3.63%.US Department of Defense: the State Council approved the sale of vehicle maintenance equipment to Kuwait, with an estimated value of $300 million.


CF40 Research: Three Channels to Expand Domestic Demand. An article published by Guan Wei of China Financial Forty Forum (CF40) pointed out that the expansion of total demand, whether it is to expand consumption or investment demand, should be implemented on credit growth. When credit goes up, residents, enterprises and governments have more money in their pockets, so do expenditures and incomes, as well as profits and investments. At present, there are three main ways to expand credit: first, fiscal policy is exerted and the government borrows money; Second, the monetary policy will exert its strength and reduce the policy interest rate; The third is to stabilize the real estate market, and there can be no further sharp decline. In terms of finance, maintain the intensity of fiscal expenditure in a broad sense, and moderately increase the fiscal deficit to 4% in 2025. In terms of monetary policy, we should take reducing the real interest rate as an important goal, continue to implement "strong interest rate reduction", and timely reduce the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools below the policy interest rate level. In terms of the property market, it will ease the current cash flow pressure faced by real estate enterprises and promote the real estate to stop falling and stabilize from both ends of supply and demand.US Treasury Secretary Yellen: It is a pity that the deficit has not been reduced to a greater extent. The outgoing US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that after President-elect Trump nominated Besant as Treasury Secretary, she had a conversation with the successor. Yellen said on Tuesday (December 10) that she introduced the breadth of work and personnel strength of the department to Besant, an experienced hedge fund manager, in a phone call before Thanksgiving. In addition, Yellen also reiterated the warning of undermining the independence of the Federal Reserve and widely imposing tariffs. In addition, she also expressed regret over the financial situation. Yellen also expressed regret that she failed to make more progress in narrowing the fiscal deficit during her tenure. "I'm worried about financial sustainability, and it's a pity that we haven't made more progress," she said. "I think we need to reduce the deficit, especially now that we are in an environment of higher interest rates."Nearly half of the listed securities firms announced the roadmap of improving quality and increasing efficiency. Recently, Capital Securities and two listed securities firms in central china securities successively disclosed the action plan of "improving quality, increasing efficiency and paying more attention to returns" in 2024, and disclosed the company's next plan from many aspects, such as strengthening functional positioning, improving operating quality and enhancing investors' returns. Since Founder Securities announced the action plan of "improving quality, increasing efficiency and paying more attention to returns" in 2024 in April this year, by the time of china securities journal's press release on December 10th, there were 20 A-share listed brokers who announced relevant announcements and carried out relevant actions, accounting for nearly half. Combing the schemes disclosed by brokers, it is found that, while actively responding to the development of financial services to the real economy and new quality productivity, in the face of the competitive environment where industry concentration is expected to be further enhanced and the "Matthew effect" is further intensified, brokers with different characteristics and sizes have also combined their own endowments in their action plans to disclose future differentiated competitive ideas. (CSI)


The commander of the Syrian rebels said that his troops had completely taken control of the Syrian city of Deir ez-Zor.The three major European stock indexes closed down across the board. The German DAX index fell 0.08% to 20329.16 points, the French CAC40 index fell 1.14% to 7394.78 points, and the British FTSE 100 index fell 0.86% to 8280.36 points.On the eve of the release of CPI data in November, a newly released report said that the leadership of the Bureau of Labor Statistics should be responsible for a series of mistakes this year. These mistakes brought the institution under scrutiny. However, the report issued by an expert team composed of government and private sector members said that none of these incidents had anything to do with the quality or accuracy of the agency's core data work. The report added that no potential motives for dishonesty or malice were found. Previously, the CPI of the United States was leaked in advance in April, and in August, the preliminary annual benchmark revised data of the non-farm payrolls report was released more than 30 minutes after the original release time of 10: 00 a.m. The survey found that the modernization of technology and software of this institution was hindered by insufficient funds, which made it impossible to ensure that its processes and systems kept pace with technological progress. The investigation team proposed to re-plan the enterprise training for front-line staff and revise the emergency plan to reduce the risk of untimely release. It is reported that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has removed contractors from key positions and limited these functions to federal staff.

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